Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 18.842091 21.810698 25.025537 28.757033 32.959961 37.538195 42.893142
2024-12-15 14.506878 18.698502 23.657455 29.914972 37.554451 46.529228 57.817576
2024-12-22 11.158801 15.823346 21.785451 29.864966 40.413814 53.593247 71.159881
2024-12-29 9.424124 14.503214 21.434168 31.398589 45.137804 63.167009 88.316803
2025-01-05 7.870415 13.060869 20.578556 31.973286 48.456573 71.026080 103.757807
2025-01-12 6.566810 11.698916 19.555661 32.054756 50.934508 77.781513 118.070899
2025-01-19 5.549541 10.570616 18.665090 32.127784 53.275533 84.382939 132.501706
2025-01-26 5.152296 10.380666 19.179204 34.356353 58.966379 96.162962 155.103654
2025-02-02 4.670403 9.948492 19.213641 35.771916 63.453545 106.388857 175.990184
2025-02-09 4.237628 9.524318 19.186482 37.041943 67.756597 116.552756 197.331560
2025-02-16 3.685457 8.767889 18.458478 36.999594 69.843565 123.314288 213.731611
2025-02-23 3.112452 7.860027 17.319460 36.076152 70.308839 127.432266 226.103455
2025-03-02 2.609443 7.019177 16.219862 35.149997 70.771665 131.720265 239.281738
2025-03-09 2.297471 6.546807 15.790030 35.446004 73.447703 139.913669 259.427287
2025-03-16 1.964230 5.953083 15.020832 34.981508 74.669759 145.673105 275.810993
2025-03-23 1.835053 5.840050 15.265203 36.577296 79.878209 158.696909 305.277507
2025-03-30 1.649664 5.539420 15.044893 37.170150 83.174796 168.470407 329.559123
2025-04-06 1.454711 5.168142 14.605774 37.238829 85.425343 176.452529 351.064306
2025-04-13 1.285470 4.830218 14.193871 37.312691 87.671864 184.528032 373.108608
2025-04-20 1.259983 4.920360 14.847257 39.843614 95.134895 202.760786 414.396149
2025-04-27 1.189068 4.852922 15.091116 41.450511 100.770738 217.798729 450.476336
2025-05-04 1.115773 4.761494 15.259422 42.891977 106.147366 232.598757 486.750336
2025-05-11 0.989875 4.460917 14.825983 42.843680 108.300437 241.222735 511.826307